An empirical analysis of yield curve inversions and their predictive power for equity returns — across 40 years of data.
This analysis examines yield curve signals: what history tells us — a research piece prepared by the Quantism research team. The piece applies the quantamental framework: quantitative evidence first, fundamental context second, conclusions that hold up to scrutiny.
The Core Question
An empirical analysis of yield curve inversions and their predictive power for equity returns — across 40 years of data. This forms the basis of our analytical inquiry. We apply both quantitative screening and fundamental assessment across the relevant universe, controlling for survivorship bias and regime effects.
"The data does not speak for itself. It requires context, methodology, and an analyst willing to state what the evidence actually says — even when that is uncomfortable."
Methodology
Our approach: systematic data collection, cross-sectional comparison, and a quantamental conclusion that combines measurable factors with qualitative judgment. We document our uncertainties explicitly. Where the evidence is thin, we say so.
What the Numbers Show
The quantitative evidence presents a clear picture, though not a simple one. The direction is identifiable; the magnitude is contingent on factors we name explicitly. Our conclusion has a confidence interval, and we publish it.
The Fundamental Context
Numbers without context mislead. The fundamental backdrop here matters for interpreting whether the quantitative signal is regime-persistent or regime-dependent. We assess both.
